24 Signs Of Decline In America

The United States is in the middle of a devastating long-term economic decline and it is getting really hard to deny it.  Over the past year I have included literally thousands of depressing statistics in my articles about the U.S. economy.  I have done this in order to make an overwhelming case that the U.S. economy is in deep decline and is dying a little bit more every single day.  Until we understand exactly how bad our problems are we will never be willing to accept the solutions.  The truth is that our leaders have absolutely wrecked the greatest economic machine that the world has ever seen.  Most Americans just assume that we will always experience overwhelming prosperity, but that is not anywhere close to the truth.  We are not guaranteed anything.  Our manufacturing base has been gutted, the number of jobs is declining, more Americans are dependent on government handouts than ever before, our dollar is dying and as a nation we are absolutely drowning in debt.  The economists that are trumpeting an “economic recovery” and that are declaring that the U.S. economy will soon be “better than ever” are delusional.  We really are steamrolling toward a complete and total economic collapse and our leaders are doing nothing to stop it.

The following are 24 more signs of economic decline in America.  Hopefully you will not get too depressed as you read them….

#1 On Monday, Standard & Poor’s altered its outlook on U.S. government debt from “stable” to “negative” and warned the U.S. that it could soon lose its AAA rating.  This is yet another sign that the rest of the world is losing faith in the U.S. dollar and in U.S. Treasuries.

#2 China has announced that they are going to be reducing their holdings of U.S. dollars.  In fact, there are persistent rumors that this has already been happening.
#3 Hedge fund manager Dennis Gartman says that “panic dollar selling is setting in” and that the U.S. dollar could be in for a huge decline.

#4 The biggest bond fund in the world, PIMCO, is now shorting U.S. government bonds.

#5 This cruel economy is causing “ghost towns” to appear all across the United States.  There are quite a few counties across the nation that now have home vacancy rates of over 50%.

#6 There are now about 7.25 million less jobs in America than when the recession began back in 2007.

#7 The average American family is having a really tough time right now.  Only 45.4% of Americans had a job during 2010.  The last time the employment level was that low was back in 1983.

#8 Only 66.8% of American men had a job last year.  That was the lowest level that has ever been recorded in all of U.S. history.

#9 According to a new report from the AFL-CIO, the average CEO made 343 times more money than the average American did last year.

#10 Gas prices reached five dollars per gallon at a gas station in Washington, DC on April 19th, 2011.  Could we see $6 gas soon?

#11 Over the past 12 months the average price of gasoline in the United States has gone up by about 30%.

#12 Due to rising fuel prices, American Airlines lost a staggering $436 million during the first quarter of 2011.

#13 U.S. households are now receiving more income from the U.S. government than they are paying to the government in taxes.
#14 Approximately one out of every four dollars that the U.S. government borrows goes to pay the interest on the national debt.
#15 Total home mortgage debt in the United States is now about 5 times larger than it was just 20 years ago.

#16 Total credit card debt in the United States is now more than 8 times larger than it was just 30 years ago.

#17 Average household debt in the United States has now reached a level of 136% of average household
income.  In China, average household debt is only 17% of average household income.
#18 The average American now spends approximately 23 percent of his or her income on food and gas.

#19 In a recent survey conducted by Deloitte Consulting, 74 percent of Americans said that they planned to slow down their spending in coming months due to rising prices.
#20 59 percent of all Americans now receive money from the federal government in one form or another.

#21 According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the average length of unemployment in the U.S. is now an all-time record 39 weeks.
#22 As the economy continues to collapse, frustration among young people will continue to grow and we will see more seemingly “random acts of violence”.  One shocking example of this happened in the Atlanta area recently.  The following is how a local Atlanta newspaper described the attack….

Roughly two dozen teens, chanting the name of a well-known Atlanta gang, brought mob rule to MARTA early Sunday morning, overwhelming nervous passengers and assaulting two Delta flight attendants.

#23 Some Americans have become so desperate for cash that they are literally popping the gold teeth right out of their mouths and selling them to pawn shops.
#24 As the economy has declined, the American people have been gobbling up larger and larger amounts of antidepressants and other prescription drugs.  In fact, the American people spent 60 billion dollars more on prescription drugs in 2010 than they did in 2005.

Source: The Trading Report

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How to Close a Deal Like Warren Buffett

Warren Buffett might be catching a lot of flack these days, but I think if you want to know about closing big deals, he’s still the guy to watch. Why? The man knows how to talk about money when he’s dealmaking.

Buffett is famous for doing ginormous deals with as little information as a few pages of business plans and the standard financials a company would submit to a bank to qualify for a loan. What he has when he goes into any conversation is an encyclopedic knowledge of how businesses work financially. He knows “their money,” “their wallet,” and how investments and outcomes should work. Follow his lead and you will close more business.

Here are seven things I’ve learned as I’ve watched Buffett from afar:

1. Know the other guy’s money - How they make it, how they count it, how they spend it. This is obviously much easier to do for publicly traded companies. For privately held companies, the numbers are fairly easy to estimate, at least the cost of goods sold and probably the cost of sale. These numbers are critical to discussing the possibilities of working together. Too often the discussion stops at budget. When you don’t know, ask. Not the trade secrets, but at least the industry averages. This provides a basic framework for the discussion.

2. Know the other guy’s wallet - How does this sale impact any of these critical numbers? The terms of the deal should be looked at from their side of the table first, then yours.

3. Start discussing the money early - You know you are going to discuss the money later. Early in the conversation, you do not have enough information for precision. Instead, you have an understanding of the economics of the prospect’s industry, so you have enough to determine if a deal makes any sense at all. Use that economic information and industry knowledge to frame a shared understanding of the reality of the money for this opportunity.

4. Use ranges to qualify and disqualify - Understand early (and throughout the discussion) whether you and your prospect are in the same arena. By using ranges of prices, cost structures, yields, and performance you can both be sure that you are dealing in a shared reality rather than getting to the end and finding yourselves so far apart that there is permanent damage done to the relationship.

5. Speak the language of investment and outcomes - Every large sale is an investment on both parts in an outcome. When you move the conversation from price to investment and cost to outcomes you are focusing on the business impact rather than budget impact. This is the language of large sales.

6. Don’t discount early - I regularly hear fearful “deal makers” use language like, “Let’s not let money get in the way of working together.” There’s a word for this that is not used in polite company. This is the language of discounting before the scope has been clearly defined. The sales person believes that he is being clever by taking money off the table. What he has really done is to take margin off the table, his and his company’s margin. If qualifying investment and impact has been made up front, then this point does not need to be made again.

7. Don’t negotiate until it’s time - Work on the deal points one at a time. Work through the investment and outcome ideas clearly, then negotiate. True, all of these points require negotiation. However, too often the conversation turns to negotiations too early before real scope and deliverables have been defined. Which means that the whole is reduced to the little parts before the shared picture of the whole has been established.

Side Note: I watched a deal unravel recently because the players did not observe these guidelines. The sale involved the installation of a point-of-sale system into a retail chain. The details are complicated as many large deals are, but the numbers were simple:

If you calculated the investment necessary for the system, the transaction cost was going to be >5% of the transaction revenue value. That’s more than the cost of the charge card processing fee! Never going to work regardless of the reporting bells and whistles, speed to data consolidation and so on.

This violates rules 1-5. The selling team did not understand the fundamental money issues of their prospect. They had not asked, done their research or even estimated. They were focused on the features of their system and what they had heard the IT people say would be the selection criteria without working through the money issues. That always leads to disaster.

saverio manzo


About me: I give Economic, Social and Global trend briefings from some of the world's brightest minds at my blog http://saveriomanzo.com/ and http://saveriomanzo.blogspot.com/. I also provide true and tested financial planning and wealth advice. Most recently, over the past few years, I have become socially conscious and have been attempting to practise ways in which I can live my life more environmentally friendly.   Along with some truly exceptional friends, we provide consulting and business development for small-medium sized businesses.  In addition, I truly believe in being philanthropic, giving and doing unto other as we would have them do unto us. Some of my fondest resources are from Barry Ritholtz of The Big Picture, David Rosenberg and what Warren Buffett of Berkshire Hathaway is up to behind the scenes, as an example. saverio manzo



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Should You Buy a Home?

The following excerpt is from a USA prospective, but I have added some a Canadian content and stats along the way. Regardless, the decison-making process of home ownership is quite similar...

I posted a video of my pal James Altucher on Yahoo Tech Ticker this week, declaring he was “Never going to buy a home ever again!”

Whenever I hear that sort of declaration, it tells me we are closer to the end of down cycle than the beginning. The psychology is reaching a negative extreme, and that means we are nearer to a capitulation.

Lets take a closer look at Jame’s thesis: I do not agree with much of what he states here — from buying the home builders (why?) to being a renter (maybe) to not owning a home (huh?) to homes being illiquid (exaggerated). And while there are many reasons to buy a house, as an investment is not really one of them.

Indeed, I find myself noting the following in response to Jim’s concerns:

• Home ownership allows you to live in one place for as long as you like, without worries that the property owner will not renew your lease.

• You get to select the school district you like for your kids’ education.

• Those of us who lived in a city know what its like to be subject to the capricious whims of a landlord. (no fun).

• When you own your home, you have the option of painting the walls whatever color you want, doing capital improvements, renovations, etc.

• Homes are less liquid than stocks, but price any home correctly and it will sell quickly.

• If you buy a home you can actually afford, there is no more stress about mortgage payments than paying your rent.

• For middle class Americans, the mortgage deduction is a huge tax savings. No such benefit exists here in Canada (formally, anyway) although one can re-structure their financial affairs to put themselves in a position to be able to tax-deduct much of their mortgage payment. (Email or call me to find out how).

There are lots of reasons to choose between Owning and Renting — it is a personal life choice — but since you have to live somewhere, its simple math to determine what the price differences are. Are the marginal cost differences worth the perceived advantages? That is your calculus.

Currently, our 3 metrics for measuring home prices show prices remain elevated by various degrees.

1. Median Income to Median Home Price — it is still about 10% too high nationally. This is the most reliable of our indicators, and it shows the most expensive home prices of the three.

2. Cost of Renting vs Cost of Ownership: This metric is now reasonable — rents have gone up, people are fearful of buying an asset whose price is falling — so it makes Ownership look more attractive, depending upon the region. But it is the most volatile and least reliable of the three, as it is easily influenced by risk aversion psychology and rising rent prices.

3. Housing Value as a % of GDP:  It shows only a slightly over-valued housing market, but that is due to the weak economy. A more robust GDP makes housing look pricier.

Barry R, The Big Picture.

About me: I give Economic, Social and Global trend briefings from some of the world's brightest minds at my blog http://saveriomanzo.com/ and http://saveriomanzo.blogspot.com/. I also provide true and tested financial planning and wealth advice. Most recently, over the past few years, I have become socially conscious and have been attempting to practise ways in which I can live my life more environmentally friendly.   Along with some truly exceptional friends, we provide consulting and business development for small-medium sized businesses.  In addition, I truly believe in being philanthropic, giving and doing unto other as we would have them do unto us. Some of my fondest resources are from Barry Ritholtz of The Big Picture, David Rosenberg and what Warren Buffett of Berkshire Hathaway is up to behind the scenes, as an example. saverio manzo 

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